FV Ravensburg 2–2 Neckarsulmer SU: Result & Stats

FV Ravensburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Neckarsulmer SU

8/6/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FV Ravensburg45%

×Draw24%

Neckarsulmer SU31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FV RavensburgExpected goals in this matchNeckarsulmer SU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.39

FV Ravensburg

1.71

Neckarsulmer SU

1.39

FV Ravensburg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

1.67

creates per match

1.24

1.53

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FV Ravensburg

1.67

Neckarsulmer SU

1.24

allows per match

FV Ravensburg

1.53

Neckarsulmer SU

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw

69%

FV Ravensburg or Neckarsulmer SU

76%

Draw or Neckarsulmer SU

55%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+

24%

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals

82%

FV Ravensburg 2+ goals

51%

FV Ravensburg 3+ goals

24%

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

75%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

40%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)

59%

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more

45%

level

24%

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

31%

FV Ravensburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff