Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FV Ravensburg vs Essingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Essingen
Essingen
11/9/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FV Ravensburg42%
×Draw24%
Essingen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Ravensburg
1.61
Essingen
1.44

FV Ravensburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

FV Ravensburg
1.67
Essingen
1.35

allows per match

FV Ravensburg
1.53
Essingen
1.55

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par
Essingen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Essingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw
66%
FV Ravensburg or Essingen
76%
Draw or Essingen
58%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
21%
Essingen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
80%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
48%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
22%
Essingen 1+ goals
76%
Essingen 2+ goals
42%
Essingen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
55%
Essingen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Essingen away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Essingen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Essingen attack 1.35 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more
42%
level
24%
Essingen scores more
34%

FV Ravensburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FV Ravensburg 0–1 Essingen

Essingen beat FV Ravensburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental in Ravensburg.