Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FV Ravensburg vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
CANC
12:00
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
5/1/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 32EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FV Ravensburg46%
×Draw23%
Astoria Walldorf II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Ravensburg
1.81
Astoria Walldorf II
1.45

FV Ravensburg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

creates per match

FV Ravensburg
1.67
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

FV Ravensburg
1.53
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw
69%
FV Ravensburg or Astoria Walldorf II
77%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
54%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
25%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
84%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
54%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
27%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
77%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
42%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
60%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more
46%
level
23%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
31%

FV Ravensburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FV Ravensburg vs Astoria Walldorf II — Match Preview

FV Ravensburg face Astoria Walldorf II on May 1, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FV Ravensburg host Astoria Walldorf II at EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.