FV Engers 07 4–0 Viktoria Herxheim: Result & Stats

FV Engers 07

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoria Herxheim

3/15/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FV Engers 0762%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Herxheim19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FV Engers 07Expected goals in this matchViktoria Herxheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.31

FV Engers 07

2.46

Viktoria Herxheim

1.31

FV Engers 07 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

1.92

creates per match

1.12

1.49

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

FV Engers 07

1.92

Viktoria Herxheim

1.12

allows per match

FV Engers 07

1.49

Viktoria Herxheim

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw

81%

FV Engers 07 or Viktoria Herxheim

81%

Draw or Viktoria Herxheim

38%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

41%

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

91%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

70%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

44%

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals

73%

Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals

38%

Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

76%

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more

62%

level

19%

Viktoria Herxheim scores more

19%

FV Engers 07 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff