FV Engers 07 2–3 TuS Koblenz: Result & Stats

FV Engers 07

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

TuS Koblenz

E. Rossler 77'

M. Schmitten 31'

M. Wingender 81'

I. Blagojevic 70', 32'

11/30/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FV Engers 0738%

×Draw23%

TuS Koblenz39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FV Engers 07Expected goals in this matchTuS Koblenz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.67

FV Engers 07

1.63

TuS Koblenz

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

1.92

creates per match

1.85

1.49

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FV Engers 07

1.92

TuS Koblenz

1.85

allows per match

FV Engers 07

1.49

TuS Koblenz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

TuS Koblenz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw

61%

FV Engers 07 or TuS Koblenz

77%

Draw or TuS Koblenz

62%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

19%

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

80%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

48%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

22%

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

81%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

50%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

49%

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more

38%

level

23%

TuS Koblenz scores more

39%

TuS Koblenz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Schmitten

32'

I. Blagojevic

70'

I. Blagojevic

77'

E. Rossler

81'

M. Wingender

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff