FV Engers 07 0–2 Salmrohr: Result & Stats

FV Engers 07

FT

0 – 2

Salmrohr

10/23/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FV Engers 0751%

×Draw21%

Salmrohr27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FV Engers 07Expected goals in this matchSalmrohr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.44

FV Engers 07

2.05

Salmrohr

1.44

FV Engers 07 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 16 away

1.92

creates per match

1.38

1.49

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

FV Engers 07

1.92

Salmrohr

1.38

allows per match

FV Engers 07

1.49

Salmrohr

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Salmrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Salmrohr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw

73%

FV Engers 07 or Salmrohr

79%

Draw or Salmrohr

49%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

30%

Salmrohr wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

87%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

61%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

33%

Salmrohr 1+ goals

76%

Salmrohr 2+ goals

42%

Salmrohr 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

66%

Salmrohr (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Salmrohr away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Salmrohr defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.05

Salmrohr attack 1.38 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more

51%

level

21%

Salmrohr scores more

27%

FV Engers 07 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff