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FV Engers 07 vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
CANC
18:00
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
11/13/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FV Engers 0754%
×Draw22%
Mülheim-Kärlich23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Engers 07
1.90
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.16

FV Engers 07 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 24 away

creates per match

FV Engers 07
1.92
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.83

allows per match

FV Engers 07
1.49
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.88

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw
77%
FV Engers 07 or Mülheim-Kärlich
78%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
46%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
31%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals
85%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
56%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
29%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
69%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
32%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
70%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more
54%
level
22%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
23%

FV Engers 07 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FV Engers 07 vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Match Preview

FV Engers 07 face Mülheim-Kärlich on November 13, 2020 in this Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FV Engers 07 host Mülheim-Kärlich at Stadion am Wasserturm.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.