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FV Engers 07 vs Bitburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bitburg
Bitburg
9/29/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FV Engers 0762%
×Draw18%
Bitburg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Engers 07
2.51
Bitburg
1.35

FV Engers 07 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

FV Engers 07
1.92
Bitburg
1.21

allows per match

FV Engers 07
1.49
Bitburg
3.11

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par
Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Bitburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw
81%
FV Engers 07 or Bitburg
82%
Draw or Bitburg
38%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
41%
Bitburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals
92%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
71%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
45%
Bitburg 1+ goals
74%
Bitburg 2+ goals
39%
Bitburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
76%
Bitburg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.51

Bitburg attack 1.21 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more
62%
level
18%
Bitburg scores more
19%

FV Engers 07 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FV Engers 07 vs Bitburg

FV Engers 07 beat Bitburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Wasserturm in Neuwied.