Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fužinar vs Radomlje — 2. SNL 2019

Fužinar
Fužinar
CANC
15:00
Radomlje
Radomlje
5/9/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fužinar26%
×Draw22%
Radomlje52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fužinar
1.33
Radomlje
1.97

Radomlje creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fužinar
1.62
Radomlje
2.37

allows per match

Fužinar
1.57
Radomlje
1.05

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par
Radomlje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Radomlje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw
48%
Fužinar or Radomlje
78%
Draw or Radomlje
74%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+
11%
Radomlje wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals
74%
Fužinar 2+ goals
38%
Fužinar 3+ goals
15%
Radomlje 1+ goals
86%
Radomlje 2+ goals
58%
Radomlje 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)
33%
Radomlje (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

Radomlje away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.62 + Radomlje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Radomlje attack 2.37 + Fužinar defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fužinar scores more
26%
level
22%
Radomlje scores more
52%

Radomlje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radomlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fužinar host Radomlje

May 9, 2021: Fužinar take on Radomlje in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.