Fužinar 0–1 Beltinci: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Fužinar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Beltinci

I. Težački 19'

10/28/2023

2. SNL · Round 15Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fužinar39%

×Draw24%

Beltinci36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FužinarExpected goals in this matchBeltinci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.46

Fužinar

1.53

Beltinci

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 94 away

1.62

creates per match

1.34

1.57

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Fužinar

1.62

Beltinci

1.34

allows per match

Fužinar

1.57

Beltinci

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par

Beltinci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Beltinci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw

64%

Fužinar or Beltinci

76%

Draw or Beltinci

61%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+

19%

Beltinci wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals

78%

Fužinar 2+ goals

45%

Fužinar 3+ goals

20%

Beltinci 1+ goals

77%

Beltinci 2+ goals

43%

Beltinci 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)

52%

Beltinci (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

Beltinci away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.44 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.62 + Beltinci defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Beltinci attack 1.34 + Fužinar defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fužinar scores more

39%

level

24%

Beltinci scores more

36%

Fužinar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

I. Težački

58'

M. Bajraj← M. Carl

58'

M. Hovnik← A. Turičnik

64'

J. Kralj← F. Kosić

68'

M. Kvesić← R. Morariu

73'

A. Emruli← R. Čakš

78'

G. Dvoršak← M. Rantaša

81'

D. Adrović← G. Gaberšek Rotovnik

Fužinar

Beltinci

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Bukovec

58'▲M. Bajraj←▼M. Carl

58'▲M. Hovnik←▼A. Turičnik

68'▲M. Kvesić←▼R. Morariu

81'▲D. Adrović←▼G. Gaberšek Rotovnik

Fužinar substitutes

BajrajHovnikKvesićAdrovićJahićDeronjaKrebs

Manager: D. Gajser

64'▲J. Kralj←▼F. Kosić

73'▲A. Emruli←▼R. Čakš

78'▲G. Dvoršak←▼M. Rantaša

Beltinci substitutes

KraljEmruliDvoršakTrbežnikLebanSlokanMoćićPopijalKosi

2. SNL: Fužinar 0–1 Beltinci

Beltinci beat Fužinar 1-0 in 2. SNL on October 28, 2023.

Goals: I. Težački (19').

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Ravne na Koroškem.

Fužinar vs Beltinci — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Fužinar 0–1 Beltinci