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Füzesgyarmati vs Újpest II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
2 – 0
Újpest II
Újpest II
9/12/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 7Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Füzesgyarmati50%
×Draw24%
Újpest II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.66
Újpest II
1.13

Füzesgyarmati creates 47% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 34 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Újpest II
1.26

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Újpest II
1.50

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Újpest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
74%
Füzesgyarmati or Újpest II
76%
Draw or Újpest II
50%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
26%
Újpest II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
81%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
49%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
23%
Újpest II 1+ goals
68%
Újpest II 2+ goals
31%
Újpest II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
66%
Újpest II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Újpest II attack 1.26 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
50%
level
24%
Újpest II scores more
26%

Füzesgyarmati at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Újpest II

Füzesgyarmati beat Újpest II 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.