Füzesgyarmati 2–0 Tiszafuredi VSE: Result & Stats

Füzesgyarmati

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tiszafuredi VSE

10/22/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 14Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Füzesgyarmati49%

×Draw24%

Tiszafuredi VSE27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FüzesgyarmatiExpected goals in this matchTiszafuredi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.23

Füzesgyarmati

1.73

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.23

Füzesgyarmati creates 41% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 102 away

1.82

creates per match

1.45

1.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.82

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.45

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.00

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw

73%

Füzesgyarmati or Tiszafuredi VSE

76%

Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE

51%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

26%

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

82%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

52%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

25%

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals

71%

Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals

35%

Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

64%

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more

49%

level

24%

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more

27%

Füzesgyarmati at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff