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Füzesgyarmati vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
1 – 1
Tállya
Tállya
4/18/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 30Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Füzesgyarmati61%
×Draw21%
Tállya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
2.07
Tállya
1.04

Füzesgyarmati creates 99% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Tállya
2.32

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
82%
Füzesgyarmati or Tállya
79%
Draw or Tállya
39%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
37%
Tállya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
87%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
61%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
34%
Tállya 1+ goals
65%
Tállya 2+ goals
28%
Tállya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
77%
Tállya (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.07

Tállya attack 1.09 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
61%
level
21%
Tállya scores more
18%

Füzesgyarmati at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Tállya

Füzesgyarmati and Tállya drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.