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Füzesgyarmati vs Szolnoki MAV FC — NB III - Southeast 2023

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
5/26/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 30Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Füzesgyarmati37%
×Draw23%
Szolnoki MAV FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.61
Szolnoki MAV FC
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
0.93
Szolnoki MAV FC
0.83

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
2.53
Szolnoki MAV FC
2.30

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
60%
Füzesgyarmati or Szolnoki MAV FC
77%
Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC
63%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
18%
Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
80%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
48%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
22%
Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
81%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
50%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
48%
Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 0.93 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 0.83 + Füzesgyarmati defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
37%
level
23%
Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
40%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Szolnoki MAV FC

Füzesgyarmati beat Szolnoki MAV FC 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.