Füzesgyarmati 4–0 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Füzesgyarmati

FT

4 – 0

Sajóbábony Vegyész

11/22/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 19Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Füzesgyarmati74%

×Draw15%

Sajóbábony Vegyész11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FüzesgyarmatiExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

0.95

Füzesgyarmati

2.73

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.95

Füzesgyarmati creates 187% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

1.82

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.82

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.00

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw

89%

Füzesgyarmati or Sajóbábony Vegyész

85%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

26%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

53%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

93%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

75%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

50%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

61%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

25%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

87%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.73

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more

74%

level

15%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

11%

Füzesgyarmati at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff