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Füzesgyarmati vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
5 – 0
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
3/27/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 26Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Füzesgyarmati71%
×Draw17%
Mezőkövesd II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
2.49
Mezőkövesd II
0.95

Füzesgyarmati creates 162% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
87%
Füzesgyarmati or Mezőkövesd II
83%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
29%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
48%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
92%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
71%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
45%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
61%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
25%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
85%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.49

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
71%
level
17%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
13%

Füzesgyarmati at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Mezőkövesd II

Füzesgyarmati beat Mezőkövesd II 5-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.