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Füzesgyarmati vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
11/5/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 14Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Füzesgyarmati27%
×Draw23%
Kecskeméti TE II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.28
Kecskeméti TE II
1.81

Kecskeméti TE II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
0.93
Kecskeméti TE II
1.10

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
2.53
Kecskeméti TE II
1.63

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
50%
Füzesgyarmati or Kecskeméti TE II
77%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
73%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
11%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
72%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
37%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
14%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
84%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
54%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
35%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 0.93 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + Füzesgyarmati defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
27%
level
23%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
50%

Kecskeméti TE II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Füzesgyarmati 1–3 Kecskeméti TE II

Kecskeméti TE II beat Füzesgyarmati 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.