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Füzesgyarmati vs Karcag SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karcag SE
Karcag SE
11/6/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 16Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Füzesgyarmati45%
×Draw25%
Karcag SE30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.54
Karcag SE
1.21

Füzesgyarmati creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 49 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Karcag SE
1.41

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Karcag SE
1.27

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Karcag SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
70%
Füzesgyarmati or Karcag SE
75%
Draw or Karcag SE
55%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
23%
Karcag SE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
79%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
45%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
20%
Karcag SE 1+ goals
70%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
34%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
60%
Karcag SE (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
45%
level
25%
Karcag SE scores more
30%

Füzesgyarmati at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Karcag SE

Füzesgyarmati and Karcag SE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.