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Füzesgyarmati vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Southeast 2023

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
10/8/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 10Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Füzesgyarmati22%
×Draw22%
Hódmezővásárhely56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.15
Hódmezővásárhely
1.94

Hódmezővásárhely creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
0.93
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
2.53
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
44%
Füzesgyarmati or Hódmezővásárhely
78%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
78%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
9%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
68%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
32%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
11%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
86%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
58%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
29%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 0.93 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Füzesgyarmati defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
22%
level
22%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
56%

Hódmezővásárhely at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hódmezővásárhely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Hódmezővásárhely

Füzesgyarmati and Hódmezővásárhely drew 0-0 in NB III - Southeast on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.