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Füzesgyarmati vs BVSC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
5 – 0
BVSC
BVSC
10/14/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 8Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Füzesgyarmati35%
×Draw26%
BVSC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.29
BVSC
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 38 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
BVSC
1.74

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
BVSC
0.76

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
BVSC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

BVSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
61%
Füzesgyarmati or BVSC
74%
Draw or BVSC
65%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
15%
BVSC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
72%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
37%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
14%
BVSC 1+ goals
75%
BVSC 2+ goals
40%
BVSC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
48%
BVSC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

BVSC away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + BVSC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

BVSC attack 1.74 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
35%
level
26%
BVSC scores more
39%

BVSC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Füzesgyarmati 5–0 BVSC

Füzesgyarmati beat BVSC 5-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.