Füzesgyarmati 3–1 Békéscsaba II: Result & Stats

Füzesgyarmati

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Békéscsaba II

9/25/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 9Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Füzesgyarmati56%

×Draw21%

Békéscsaba II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FüzesgyarmatiExpected goals in this matchBékéscsaba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.33

Füzesgyarmati

2.15

Békéscsaba II

1.33

Füzesgyarmati creates 62% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.66

1.00

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.82

Békéscsaba II

1.66

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.00

Békéscsaba II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Békéscsaba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Békéscsaba II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw

77%

Füzesgyarmati or Békéscsaba II

79%

Draw or Békéscsaba II

44%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

34%

Békéscsaba II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

88%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

63%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

36%

Békéscsaba II 1+ goals

74%

Békéscsaba II 2+ goals

38%

Békéscsaba II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

71%

Békéscsaba II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Békéscsaba II away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Békéscsaba II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.15

Békéscsaba II attack 1.66 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more

56%

level

21%

Békéscsaba II scores more

23%

Füzesgyarmati at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff