Füzesgyarmati 0–4 Bekescsaba 1912: Result & Stats

Füzesgyarmati

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Bekescsaba 1912

9/3/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 6Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Füzesgyarmati9%

×Draw15%

Bekescsaba 191276%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FüzesgyarmatiExpected goals in this matchBekescsaba 1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.53

Füzesgyarmati

0.73

Bekescsaba 1912

2.53

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 247% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.93

creates per match

2.53

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati

0.93

Bekescsaba 1912

2.53

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati

2.53

Bekescsaba 1912

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Bekescsaba 1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–311%

0–47%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw

24%

Füzesgyarmati or Bekescsaba 1912

85%

Draw or Bekescsaba 1912

91%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

2%

Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

52%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

17%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

4%

Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals

92%

Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals

71%

Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

10%

Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Bekescsaba 1912 away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 0.93 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 2.53 + Füzesgyarmati defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more

9%

level

15%

Bekescsaba 1912 scores more

76%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff