Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Füzesabony vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesabony
Füzesabony
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
10/6/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 10Füzesabonyi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Füzesabony41%
×Draw27%
Salgótarjáni BTC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesabony
1.31
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.11

Füzesabony creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Füzesabony
0.70
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Füzesabony
1.37
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Füzesabony+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesabony ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Füzesabony or draw
69%
Füzesabony or Salgótarjáni BTC
73%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
59%

Winning margin

Füzesabony wins by 2+
19%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Füzesabony 1+ goals
73%
Füzesabony 2+ goals
38%
Füzesabony 3+ goals
14%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
67%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
30%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Füzesabony (draw refunded)
57%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesabony at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesabony attack 0.70 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Füzesabony defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Füzesabony scores more
41%
level
27%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
31%

Füzesabony at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Füzesabony will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Füzesabony 2–1 Salgótarjáni BTC

Füzesabony beat Salgótarjáni BTC 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Füzesabonyi Sporttelep in Füzesabony.