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Future Stars vs Ebony FC — Division One League 2025

Future Stars
Future Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ebony FC
Ebony FC
10/19/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Future Stars51%
×Draw25%
Ebony FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Future Stars
1.60
Ebony FC
1.00

Future Stars creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Future Stars
1.67
Ebony FC
1.07

allows per match

Future Stars
0.93
Ebony FC
1.53

finishing

Future Stars+0.00on par
Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Future Stars ↓

Ebony FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Future Stars or draw
76%
Future Stars or Ebony FC
75%
Draw or Ebony FC
49%

Winning margin

Future Stars wins by 2+
27%
Ebony FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Future Stars 1+ goals
80%
Future Stars 2+ goals
47%
Future Stars 3+ goals
22%
Ebony FC 1+ goals
63%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
26%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Future Stars (draw refunded)
68%
Ebony FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Future Stars at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Future Stars attack 1.67 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + Future Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Future Stars scores more
51%
level
25%
Ebony FC scores more
24%

Future Stars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Future Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Future Stars 0–0 Ebony FC

Future Stars and Ebony FC drew 0-0 in Division One League on October 19, 2025.