Futura 0–6 Kooteepee: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Futura

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Kooteepee

4/9/2022

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundPorvoon pallokentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Futura14%

×Draw14%

Kooteepee72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuturaExpected goals in this matchKooteepee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

3.64

Futura

1.67

Kooteepee

3.64

Kooteepee creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

4.07

3.20

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Futura

2.20

Kooteepee

4.07

allows per match

Futura

3.20

Kooteepee

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futura+0.00on par

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futura ↓

Kooteepee →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–44%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Futura or draw

28%

Futura or Kooteepee

86%

Draw or Kooteepee

86%

Winning margin

Futura wins by 2+

Kooteepee wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Futura 1+ goals

81%

Futura 2+ goals

50%

Futura 3+ goals

23%

Kooteepee 1+ goals

97%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

87%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

Futura (draw refunded)

17%

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Futura at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 4.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Futura attack 2.20 + Kooteepee defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kooteepee attack 4.07 + Futura defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Futura scores more

14%

level

14%

Kooteepee scores more

72%

Kooteepee at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff