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Futura vs KäPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Futura
Futura
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
KäPa
KäPa
7/30/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 9Porvoon Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Futura25%
×Draw21%
KäPa54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futura
1.42
KäPa
2.13

KäPa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Futura
1.39
KäPa
1.68

allows per match

Futura
2.58
KäPa
1.45

finishing

Futura+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futura ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Futura or draw
46%
Futura or KäPa
79%
Draw or KäPa
75%

Winning margin

Futura wins by 2+
11%
KäPa wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Futura 1+ goals
76%
Futura 2+ goals
41%
Futura 3+ goals
17%
KäPa 1+ goals
88%
KäPa 2+ goals
63%
KäPa 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Futura (draw refunded)
32%
KäPa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futura at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 31 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futura attack 1.39 + KäPa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

KäPa attack 1.68 + Futura defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Futura scores more
25%
level
21%
KäPa scores more
54%

KäPa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Futura 0–2 KäPa

KäPa beat Futura 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Porvoon Keskuskenttä in Porvoo.