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Futura vs JäPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Futura
Futura
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
JäPS II
JäPS II
6/7/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 9Porvoon Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Futura47%
×Draw21%
JäPS II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futura
2.19
JäPS II
1.79

Futura creates 22% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Futura
1.39
JäPS II
1.00

allows per match

Futura
2.58
JäPS II
3.00

finishing

Futura+0.00on par
JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futura ↓

JäPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Futura or draw
68%
Futura or JäPS II
79%
Draw or JäPS II
53%

Winning margin

Futura wins by 2+
28%
JäPS II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Futura 1+ goals
89%
Futura 2+ goals
64%
Futura 3+ goals
37%
JäPS II 1+ goals
83%
JäPS II 2+ goals
53%
JäPS II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Futura (draw refunded)
59%
JäPS II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futura at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 31 matches

JäPS II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futura attack 1.39 + JäPS II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

JäPS II attack 1.00 + Futura defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Futura scores more
47%
level
21%
JäPS II scores more
32%

Futura at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Futura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Futura 2–3 JäPS II

JäPS II beat Futura 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Porvoon Keskuskenttä in Porvoo.