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Futura vs JäPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Futura
Futura
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
JäPS
JäPS
4/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundPorvoon pallokentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Futura17%
×Draw16%
JäPS67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futura
1.64
JäPS
3.21

JäPS creates 96% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Futura
2.20
JäPS
3.23

allows per match

Futura
3.20
JäPS
1.08

finishing

Futura+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futura ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Futura or draw
33%
Futura or JäPS
84%
Draw or JäPS
83%

Winning margin

Futura wins by 2+
8%
JäPS wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Futura 1+ goals
81%
Futura 2+ goals
49%
Futura 3+ goals
23%
JäPS 1+ goals
96%
JäPS 2+ goals
82%
JäPS 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Futura (draw refunded)
21%
JäPS (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futura at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

JäPS away — creates 3.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futura attack 2.20 + JäPS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

JäPS attack 3.23 + Futura defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Futura scores more
17%
level
16%
JäPS scores more
67%

JäPS at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Futura vs JäPS

JäPS beat Futura 7-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2025.

The match was played at Porvoon pallokentän tekonurmi in Porvoo.