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Futura vs Atlantis II — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Futura
Futura
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlantis II
Atlantis II
5/27/2023Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 5Porvoon pallokentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Futura27%
×Draw23%
Atlantis II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futura
1.29
Atlantis II
1.86

Atlantis II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

creates per match

Futura
1.39
Atlantis II
1.15

allows per match

Futura
2.58
Atlantis II
1.20

finishing

Futura+0.00on par
Atlantis II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futura ↓

Atlantis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Futura or draw
49%
Futura or Atlantis II
77%
Draw or Atlantis II
73%

Winning margin

Futura wins by 2+
11%
Atlantis II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Futura 1+ goals
72%
Futura 2+ goals
37%
Futura 3+ goals
14%
Atlantis II 1+ goals
84%
Atlantis II 2+ goals
55%
Atlantis II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Futura (draw refunded)
34%
Atlantis II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futura at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 31 matches

Atlantis II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futura attack 1.39 + Atlantis II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atlantis II attack 1.15 + Futura defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Futura scores more
27%
level
23%
Atlantis II scores more
51%

Atlantis II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlantis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Futura vs Atlantis II

Atlantis II beat Futura 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Porvoon pallokentän tekonurmi in Porvoo.