Futgol U20 0–3 Tres Coracoes U20: Result & Stats

Futgol U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tres Coracoes U20

Unknown 52', 40', 31'

8/2/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 13Arena Santa Luzia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Futgol U2044%

×Draw23%

Tres Coracoes U2033%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futgol U20Expected goals in this matchTres Coracoes U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.50

Futgol U20

1.76

Tres Coracoes U20

1.50

Futgol U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.38

creates per match

1.86

1.13

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Futgol U20

1.38

Tres Coracoes U20

1.86

allows per match

Futgol U20

1.13

Tres Coracoes U20

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par

Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw

67%

Futgol U20 or Tres Coracoes U20

77%

Draw or Tres Coracoes U20

56%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+

23%

Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals

83%

Futgol U20 2+ goals

52%

Futgol U20 3+ goals

26%

Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals

78%

Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals

44%

Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Futgol U20 scores more

44%

level

23%

Tres Coracoes U20 scores more

33%

Futgol U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Futgol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

40'

52'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff