Futgol U20 7–0 Mamoré U20: Result & Stats

Futgol U20

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Mamoré U20

8/9/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 11Complexo Esportivo Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Futgol U2085%

×Draw10%

Mamoré U204%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futgol U20Expected goals in this matchMamoré U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.99

0.56

Futgol U20

2.99

Mamoré U20

0.56

Futgol U20 creates 434% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

1.38

creates per match

0.00

1.13

allows per match

4.60

creates per match

Futgol U20

1.38

Mamoré U20

0.00

allows per match

Futgol U20

1.13

Mamoré U20

4.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par

Mamoré U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

Mamoré U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw

96%

Futgol U20 or Mamoré U20

90%

Draw or Mamoré U20

15%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+

66%

Mamoré U20 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals

95%

Futgol U20 2+ goals

79%

Futgol U20 3+ goals

56%

Mamoré U20 1+ goals

43%

Mamoré U20 2+ goals

11%

Mamoré U20 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)

95%

Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Mamoré U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + Mamoré U20 defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 2.99

Mamoré U20 attack 0.00 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Futgol U20 scores more

85%

level

10%

Mamoré U20 scores more

4%

Futgol U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Futgol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff