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Futgol U20 vs Itabirito U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Futgol U20
Futgol U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Itabirito U20
Itabirito U20
5/23/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 2Complexo Esportivo Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Futgol U2048%
×Draw27%
Itabirito U2025%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futgol U20
1.42
Itabirito U20
0.93

Futgol U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Futgol U20
1.38
Itabirito U20
0.73

allows per match

Futgol U20
1.13
Itabirito U20
1.45

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par
Itabirito U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

Itabirito U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw
75%
Futgol U20 or Itabirito U20
73%
Draw or Itabirito U20
52%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+
24%
Itabirito U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals
76%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
41%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
17%
Itabirito U20 1+ goals
61%
Itabirito U20 2+ goals
24%
Itabirito U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Itabirito U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Itabirito U20 away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + Itabirito U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Itabirito U20 attack 0.73 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Futgol U20 scores more
48%
level
27%
Itabirito U20 scores more
25%

Futgol U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Futgol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Futgol U20 0–0 Itabirito U20

Futgol U20 and Itabirito U20 drew 0-0 in Mineiro U20 on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Esportivo Bonfim in São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais.