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Futgol U20 vs Inter de Minas U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Futgol U20
Futgol U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Inter de Minas U20
Inter de Minas U20
Unknown 23'
6/29/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 8Arena Santa Luzia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Futgol U2040%
×Draw24%
Inter de Minas U2036%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futgol U20
1.54
Inter de Minas U20
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Futgol U20
1.38
Inter de Minas U20
1.75

allows per match

Futgol U20
1.13
Inter de Minas U20
1.70

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par
Inter de Minas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

Inter de Minas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw
64%
Futgol U20 or Inter de Minas U20
76%
Draw or Inter de Minas U20
60%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+
20%
Inter de Minas U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals
79%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
45%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
20%
Inter de Minas U20 1+ goals
76%
Inter de Minas U20 2+ goals
42%
Inter de Minas U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Inter de Minas U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Inter de Minas U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + Inter de Minas U20 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Inter de Minas U20 attack 1.75 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Futgol U20 scores more
40%
level
24%
Inter de Minas U20 scores more
36%

Futgol U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Futgol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Futgol U20 vs Inter de Minas U20

Inter de Minas U20 beat Futgol U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 29, 2024.

Goals: ? (23').

The match was played at Arena Santa Luzia in Contagem, Minas Gerais.