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Futgol U20 vs Coimbra U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Futgol U20
Futgol U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
9/28/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 5Complexo Esportivo Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Futgol U2042%
×Draw26%
Coimbra U2032%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futgol U20
1.45
Coimbra U20
1.23

Futgol U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Futgol U20
1.38
Coimbra U20
1.33

allows per match

Futgol U20
1.13
Coimbra U20
1.52

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par
Coimbra U20+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

Coimbra U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw
68%
Futgol U20 or Coimbra U20
74%
Draw or Coimbra U20
58%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+
20%
Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals
77%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
42%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
18%
Coimbra U20 1+ goals
71%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
35%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Coimbra U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Coimbra U20 attack 1.33 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Futgol U20 scores more
42%
level
26%
Coimbra U20 scores more
32%

Futgol U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Futgol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Futgol U20 2–1 Coimbra U20

Futgol U20 beat Coimbra U20 2-1 in Mineiro U20 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Esportivo Bonfim in São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais.