Futgol U20 1–2 Boston City U20: Result & Stats

Futgol U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Boston City U20

10/5/2025

Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 6Complexo Esportivo Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Futgol U2046%

×Draw25%

Boston City U2028%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futgol U20Expected goals in this matchBoston City U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.13

Futgol U20

1.53

Boston City U20

1.13

Futgol U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

1.14

1.13

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Futgol U20

1.38

Boston City U20

1.14

allows per match

Futgol U20

1.13

Boston City U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par

Boston City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

Boston City U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw

72%

Futgol U20 or Boston City U20

75%

Draw or Boston City U20

54%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+

23%

Boston City U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals

78%

Futgol U20 2+ goals

45%

Futgol U20 3+ goals

20%

Boston City U20 1+ goals

68%

Boston City U20 2+ goals

31%

Boston City U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Boston City U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Boston City U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + Boston City U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Boston City U20 attack 1.14 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Futgol U20 scores more

46%

level

25%

Boston City U20 scores more

28%

Futgol U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Futgol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff