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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
1 – 2
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
8/21/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia53%
×Draw23%
Puerto Golfito23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.77
Puerto Golfito
1.09

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 84 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.53
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.27
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
77%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or Puerto Golfito
77%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
47%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
30%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
83%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
53%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
26%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
66%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
30%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
69%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.77

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
53%
level
23%
Puerto Golfito scores more
23%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Futbol Consultants Moravia 1–2 Puerto Golfito

Puerto Golfito beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge in San José.