Futbol Consultants Moravia 3–2 Escorpiones Belén

Futbol Consultants Moravia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Escorpiones Belén

9/19/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 7Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia40%

×Draw25%

Escorpiones Belén36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futbol Consultants MoraviaExpected goals in this matchEscorpiones Belén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.44

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.52

Escorpiones Belén

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 87 away

1.53

creates per match

1.60

1.27

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.53

Escorpiones Belén

1.60

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.27

Escorpiones Belén

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Escorpiones Belén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw

64%

Futbol Consultants Moravia or Escorpiones Belén

75%

Draw or Escorpiones Belén

60%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

19%

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

78%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

45%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

20%

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

76%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

42%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

52%

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

40%

level

25%

Escorpiones Belén scores more

36%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff