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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs CS Uruguay — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
1/20/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia46%
×Draw24%
CS Uruguay30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.66
CS Uruguay
1.29

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 124 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.53
CS Uruguay
1.31

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.27
CS Uruguay
1.78

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
CS Uruguay+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

CS Uruguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
70%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or CS Uruguay
76%
Draw or CS Uruguay
54%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
24%
CS Uruguay wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
81%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
49%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
23%
CS Uruguay 1+ goals
72%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
37%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
61%
CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

CS Uruguay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + CS Uruguay defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

CS Uruguay attack 1.31 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
46%
level
24%
CS Uruguay scores more
30%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Futbol Consultants Moravia 0–2 CS Uruguay

CS Uruguay beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.