CS Uruguay 3–1 Futbol Consultants Moravia

CS Uruguay

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Futbol Consultants Moravia

2/28/2026

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

CS Uruguay46%

×Draw25%

Futbol Consultants Moravia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS UruguayExpected goals in this matchFutbol Consultants Moravia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

CS Uruguay

1.58

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.19

CS Uruguay creates 33% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 124 away

1.51

creates per match

1.18

1.21

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

CS Uruguay

1.51

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.18

allows per match

CS Uruguay

1.21

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw

71%

CS Uruguay or Futbol Consultants Moravia

75%

Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia

54%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+

24%

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals

79%

CS Uruguay 2+ goals

47%

CS Uruguay 3+ goals

21%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

70%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

33%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)

62%

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CS Uruguay scores more

46%

level

25%

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

29%

CS Uruguay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff