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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
1 – 2
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
3/8/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 12Estadio ST Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia53%
×Draw24%
AS Puma Generalena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.72
AS Puma Generalena
1.07

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 73 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.54
AS Puma Generalena
0.89

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.26
AS Puma Generalena
1.90

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
76%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or AS Puma Generalena
76%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
47%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
29%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
82%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
51%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
25%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
66%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
29%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
69%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.54 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.72

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.89 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
53%
level
24%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
24%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Futbol Consultants Moravia 1–2 AS Puma Generalena

AS Puma Generalena beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio ST Center in San José.