Fussach 1–0 Schruns: Result & Stats

Fussach

FT

1 – 0

Schruns

8/22/2020

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 4Sportanlage Müss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fussach53%

×Draw21%

Schruns26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FussachExpected goals in this matchSchruns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.47

Fussach

2.17

Schruns

1.47

Fussach creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

1.91

creates per match

1.35

1.59

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Fussach

1.91

Schruns

1.35

allows per match

Fussach

1.59

Schruns

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fussach+0.00on par

Schruns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fussach ↓

Schruns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fussach or draw

74%

Fussach or Schruns

79%

Draw or Schruns

47%

Winning margin

Fussach wins by 2+

32%

Schruns wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fussach 1+ goals

89%

Fussach 2+ goals

64%

Fussach 3+ goals

36%

Schruns 1+ goals

77%

Schruns 2+ goals

43%

Schruns 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fussach (draw refunded)

67%

Schruns (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fussach at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Schruns away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fussach attack 1.91 + Schruns defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.17

Schruns attack 1.35 + Fussach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fussach scores more

53%

level

21%

Schruns scores more

26%

Fussach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fussach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff