Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fussach vs Austria Lustenau II — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Fussach
Fussach
FT
2 – 2
Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
9/24/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 11Sportanlage Müss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Fussach50%
×Draw21%
Austria Lustenau II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fussach
2.08
Austria Lustenau II
1.56

Fussach creates 33% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 41 away

creates per match

Fussach
1.91
Austria Lustenau II
1.54

allows per match

Fussach
1.59
Austria Lustenau II
2.24

finishing

Fussach+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fussach ↓

Austria Lustenau II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fussach or draw
71%
Fussach or Austria Lustenau II
79%
Draw or Austria Lustenau II
50%

Winning margin

Fussach wins by 2+
29%
Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fussach 1+ goals
87%
Fussach 2+ goals
61%
Fussach 3+ goals
34%
Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
79%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
46%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fussach (draw refunded)
63%
Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fussach at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fussach attack 1.91 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.08

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.54 + Fussach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fussach scores more
50%
level
21%
Austria Lustenau II scores more
29%

Fussach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fussach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Fussach 2–2 Austria Lustenau II

Fussach and Austria Lustenau II drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Müss in Fußach.