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Fushë Kosova vs Malisheva — Cup 2019

Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Malisheva
Malishevaadvanced
12/4/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Ekrem Grajqevci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fushë Kosova7%
×Draw11%
Malisheva82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fushë Kosova
0.84
Malisheva
3.18

Malisheva creates 279% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fushë Kosova
1.25
Malisheva
2.86

allows per match

Fushë Kosova
3.50
Malisheva
0.43

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw
18%
Fushë Kosova or Malisheva
89%
Draw or Malisheva
93%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
2%
Malisheva wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
57%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
21%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
5%
Malisheva 1+ goals
96%
Malisheva 2+ goals
82%
Malisheva 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
8%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Malisheva away — creates 2.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 1.25 + Malisheva defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.84

Malisheva attack 2.86 + Fushë Kosova defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more
7%
level
11%
Malisheva scores more
82%

Malisheva at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fushë Kosova vs Malisheva

Malisheva beat Fushë Kosova 5-0 in Cup on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ekrem Grajqevci in Kosovo Polje.