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Fushë Kosova vs Ballkani — Superliga 2019

Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
FT
2 – 0
Ballkani
Ballkani
3/13/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 25Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fushë Kosova23%
×Draw27%
Ballkani50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fushë Kosova
0.89
Ballkani
1.44

Ballkani creates 62% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

creates per match

Fushë Kosova
0.78
Ballkani
1.48

allows per match

Fushë Kosova
1.39
Ballkani
0.99

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw
50%
Fushë Kosova or Ballkani
73%
Draw or Ballkani
77%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
8%
Ballkani wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
59%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
22%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
6%
Ballkani 1+ goals
76%
Ballkani 2+ goals
42%
Ballkani 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
32%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 0.78 + Ballkani defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ballkani attack 1.48 + Fushë Kosova defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more
23%
level
27%
Ballkani scores more
50%

Ballkani at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Fushë Kosova 2–0 Ballkani

Fushë Kosova beat Ballkani 2-0 in Superliga on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.