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Fushë Kosova vs 2 Korriku — Cup 2019

Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
FT
1 – 3
2 Korriku
2 Korrikuadvanced
12/6/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fushë Kosova40%
×Draw19%
2 Korriku41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fushë Kosova
2.42
2 Korriku
2.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fushë Kosova
1.25
2 Korriku
1.40

allows per match

Fushë Kosova
3.50
2 Korriku
3.60

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par
2 Korriku+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

2 Korriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw
59%
Fushë Kosova or 2 Korriku
81%
Draw or 2 Korriku
60%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
23%
2 Korriku wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
91%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
69%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
43%
2 Korriku 1+ goals
91%
2 Korriku 2+ goals
70%
2 Korriku 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
49%
2 Korriku (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

2 Korriku away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 1.25 + 2 Korriku defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

2 Korriku attack 1.40 + Fushë Kosova defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more
40%
level
19%
2 Korriku scores more
41%

2 Korriku at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "2 Korriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Fushë Kosova 1–3 2 Korriku

2 Korriku beat Fushë Kosova 3-1 in Cup on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.