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FUS Rabat vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
12/28/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 16Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FUS Rabat44%
×Draw28%
UTS Rabat28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FUS Rabat
1.31
UTS Rabat
0.98

FUS Rabat creates 34% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 61 away

creates per match

FUS Rabat
1.26
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

FUS Rabat
0.88
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw
72%
FUS Rabat or UTS Rabat
72%
Draw or UTS Rabat
56%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+
20%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals
73%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
14%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
62%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
26%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
61%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FUS Rabat scores more
44%
level
28%
UTS Rabat scores more
28%

FUS Rabat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: FUS Rabat 2–0 UTS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat UTS Rabat 2-0 in Botola Pro on December 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.