FUS Rabat 3–0 Olympique Safi: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olympique Safi

10/23/2024

Botola Pro · Round 7Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

FUS Rabat44%

×Draw29%

Olympique Safi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchOlympique Safi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

FUS Rabat

1.27

Olympique Safi

0.93

FUS Rabat creates 37% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 118 away

1.26

creates per match

0.97

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.26

Olympique Safi

0.97

allows per match

FUS Rabat

0.88

Olympique Safi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Olympique Safi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

73%

FUS Rabat or Olympique Safi

71%

Draw or Olympique Safi

56%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

20%

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

72%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

36%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

14%

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

61%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

24%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

62%

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Olympique Safi attack 0.97 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

44%

level

29%

Olympique Safi scores more

27%

FUS Rabat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff