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FUS Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
12/8/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 11Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FUS Rabat46%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Tanger25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FUS Rabat
1.31
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

FUS Rabat creates 47% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

FUS Rabat
1.25
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

FUS Rabat
0.88
Ittihad Tanger
1.37

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw
75%
FUS Rabat or Ittihad Tanger
72%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
54%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+
22%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals
73%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
14%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
59%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
22%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
65%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.25 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FUS Rabat scores more
46%
level
28%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
25%

FUS Rabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: FUS Rabat 0–0 Ittihad Tanger

FUS Rabat and Ittihad Tanger drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan in Rabat.