FUS Rabat 1–0 FC Sion: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Sion

A. Mouloua 0'

1/10/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FUS Rabat33%

×Draw22%

FC Sion45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchFC Sion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.92

FUS Rabat

1.60

FC Sion

1.92

FC Sion creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

2.83

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.20

FC Sion

2.83

allows per match

FUS Rabat

1.00

FC Sion

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

FC Sion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

FC Sion →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

55%

FUS Rabat or FC Sion

78%

Draw or FC Sion

67%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

16%

FC Sion wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

80%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

47%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

22%

FC Sion 1+ goals

85%

FC Sion 2+ goals

57%

FC Sion 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

42%

FC Sion (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

FC Sion away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.20 + FC Sion defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Sion attack 2.83 + FUS Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

33%

level

22%

FC Sion scores more

45%

FC Sion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Mouloua

FUS

Manager: S. Chiba

Manager: Didier Tholot