FUS Rabat vs CODM Meknès — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
FUS Rabat54%
CODM Meknès20%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FUS Rabat creates 92% more chances
Season form · 119 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FUS Rabat ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches
CODM Meknès away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + CODM Meknès defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48
CODM Meknès attack 0.67 + FUS Rabat defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
FUS Rabat at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FUS Rabat host CODM Meknès on Monday, 23 December 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Botola Pro: FUS Rabat 5–1 CODM Meknès
FUS Rabat beat CODM Meknès 5-1 in Botola Pro on December 23, 2024.
Goals: A. Mouloua (22', 25', 30' o.g., 35'), S. Benyachou (63'), O. Raoui (90+5').
The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.